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August 15, 2005

Bubble, bubble, toil and... double down

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Posted by Dominic Basulto

Housing bubble? What housing bubble? Even analysts once bearish about the housing market are no longer predicting a "sudden, painful drop" in housing prices, according to the New York Post. Despite all the talk in the media about a potential housing bubble (in June, there were 774 articles alone referring to "housing bubble"), bears are morphing into bulls mostly because U.S. property values simply show no signs of weakness and mortgage rates remain reasonable. In fact, as prices continue to edge up to "nosebleed" levels, bears are simply throwing in the towel. In Manhattan alone, unit sales of apartments increased by 7.5% in 2Q 2005, while the average price of an apartment unit ($1.32 million) increased by 30% compared to the year-earlier period.

A New York real estate speculator summarizes why so many people are willing to suspend reality when it comes to playing the real estate market:

"I'm concerned about all this bubble talk I see on CNBC and in newspapers because they are all correct about the dangers built into this housing market... But you can listen to a guy with a long list of degrees telling me that the bubble is going to definitely burst, while an equally accomplished fellow can say just the opposite on another channel. I don't know what to believe."

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