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August 11, 2005

Is Whole Foods Market the new Google?

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Posted by Dominic Basulto

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If this article appeared in any source other than The Wall Street Journal, we'd immediately dismiss it as out of the range of possibility and another sign of bubble mentality: "Think Google, With Less Hype: The Case for Whole Foods Market." (link from a Dow Jones sister publication, Smart Money) James Stewart was out and about in New York City and couldn't help but notice that Whole Foods Market represents quite an investment opportunity:

"I suspect the main reason people shop at Whole Foods, and are willing to pay more for the experience, is that it's fun. When you think about it, the Whole Foods concept is pretty revolutionary. It's reinventing food retailing, and might change agriculture. I think of it as a stealth Google, a company with huge potential but a small fraction of Google's hype. Like Google's founders, Whole Foods' top executives eschew the usual quarterly guidance and earnings predictions.

Wall Street analysts tend to think of it as a supermarket chain, which is myopic. Whole Foods is competing not just with the old-line supermarkets, but also with restaurants, catering businesses, coffee bars and chains like Starbucks, wine and beverage retailers, and even cosmetics sellers. Whole Foods is becoming what the department store was in its heyday — a destination, a meeting place, a community center, a town square."

Whew, that's a mouthful. The only problem, says Stewart, is that the company's stock recently traded at $140, a 52-week high, and trades at a very rich forward P/E of 54. If you think Google is a buy at $300, though, Whole Foods is surely a buy at $132.

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